Where Are We At?

[MikeJ]

So I was poking around on the FedEx board and there all busy making predictions about what's going to happen with Wuhan Flu 2020 World Wide Biohazzard Pandemic.

So you know predictions for how long this shutdown could last, can be all over the place.

So I went by Sysco Cleveland on Monday, I know they load for Cleveland and Columbus, Ohio and every drop lot and route inbetween and I even see them as far out as Pittsburgh, even though Pittsburgh has there own Sysco.

Anyhow, Sysco Cleveland on Monday it packed to the hilt with equipment. Just rows and rows and rows and rows of trailers and tractors all stacked up on top of each other. Must have been over 100 trucks in there. Looked worse then a Delta Air Lines hanger right now.

Place was also deader then a door nail nobody around no nothing. Anyhow, so besides some goofy panic shopping that is still going on in some capacity somewhere, I think fasten your seatbelts the rides about to get bumpy. Visa said consumer spending on consumer goods is down 19% and Macy's Department Store just furloughed all 100,000+ employees it had. I know FedEx Freight is starting to cancel road runs.

I know besides medical and some grocery store stuff, were in a contraction. Were on 4 days a week at GFS and we've had some furloughs. I am working 3 days this week. I'm middle of the seniority board, we did have 2 people take a voluntary furlough. I was asked if I wanted to and I took Monday off burned a Flex Day I may do that again. We have some guys cancelling vacations because there vacation destination is closed or it's not safe to go there you know how it goes.

The doomsayers on the You Tube keep saying well were at the end of the 7-10 year bull market cycle time for a recession. I think it's going to be a little on the slow side this month.

And I don't know what's going to happen once they open up the economy again, I don't know if the restaurant industry will crank back up or if it will take a minute for it to get back up to say December 2019 levels.

But I would expect, as this month goes on things to slow down, even for others. My friend is a driver for Sherwin-Williams and he said at first they were real busy, but then once people realized that the government was serious about this shut down stuff and peoples jobs and places of work were shuttered they all stopped there home improvement projects and he said there stores were cranking for about 1-2 weeks and now they have really slowed down a lot.

The one thing about this new era it used to be you watched the news and the news was something that happened to other people. Well not anymore it's like Rage Against the Machine said The Front Lines are Everywhere and now a days it seems it's all in our own back yard anymore. It's how it goes everybody knows.

So will see what happens, but I think were hitting some turbulence right now.

 

[kboomarang]

The ensuing ripple effect really hasn't even hit yet, the predicted unemployment rate is absolutely frightening, and how many businesses that were forced to close will reopen, will they even have the capital to reopen, then how about their suppliers they got to be sitting on a pile of unpaid invoices, landlords not getting paid, banks not getting repaid, a lot of restaurants around here are open for take-out only, can they survive on that alone when their business model was strictly eat-in with revenue coming from alcohol...it'll be bad, with a recover in some sectors that will take years.

 

[MikeJ]

The ensuing ripple effect really hasn't even hit yet, the predicted unemployment rate is absolutely frightening, and how many businesses that were forced to close will reopen, will they even have the capital to reopen, then how about their suppliers they got to be sitting on a pile of unpaid invoices, landlords not getting paid, banks not getting repaid, a lot of restaurants around here are open for take-out only, can they survive on that alone when their business model was strictly eat-in with revenue coming from alcohol...it'll be bad, with a recover in some sectors that will take years.

Pick up and delivery is "fools gold" according to a restaurant guy. Right now those places are throwing money at a lost cause, stuffs not good. Pick up and delivery isn't going to save anyone's year. This year I don't expect to make as much as I did last year. Yeah there's going to be a big ripple effect like you said.

 

[MikeJ]

A Sign of The Times

Well friends residential garbage collection is at an all time high right now. See that guy in the picture with the broom, I know him and we were talking today, he actually saw me walking down the street and gave a toot of the air horn as he saw me walking.

Anyhow, he said that the garbage departments tonnage is through the roof and is crazy busy right now. My mom said that they came earlier then they normally do.They certainly seemed to have the pedal to the metal today when I was talking to him. It looked to me like the city threw more iron at the garbage then they normally do although they have a good amount of equipment.

He said there currently at 26+ tons of just garbage a day. That's not counting yard waste and recycling. He said recycling is off the charts with contamination and has become very costly to get rid of and I guess now every contaminated ton of recycling is a $100.00 fine from the recycling plant.

He was driving truck #34 which is "The Big One" as I call it. It's the biggest truck the city has in it's fleet and can legally do 13.4 tons, that's legal so that's 26,000+ pounds which that's a heavy day at GFS so it's also a heavy day at the garbage department. But he said there running with the truck bodies down to the shocks. Now these new modern garbage trucks can pack and pack and pack all day they go quite a ways and truck 34 I was standing right next to it is every bit of 31-32 yards it's a pretty big unit. The rest of the trucks I think are only 25 yard units number 33 I think they only use that one for recycling as it's not specked with a tag axle. #16 the 25 yard load master has a tag axle and they use that one for regular garbage. Most of there trucks have a tag axle which means there used for garbage or yard waste, although yard waste compacts down. There yard waste routes have been really heavy though. They had a dump truck out running yard waste. So that's another world that's been affected by the quarantine. It's always interesting to see what it's like out there on the mean streets.

Truck 33 no tag axle used on recycling routes.

 

[kboomarang]

I went by the Sysco warehouse this morning about 10am, employee parking lot only about 1/3 full, no outside trucks lining the street waiting to unload, and it was really hard to tell if even any of their trucks were out on the street, other the employee cars it looked like it was a Sunday afternoon, scary.

 

[MikeJ]

I went by the Sysco warehouse this morning about 10am, employee parking lot only about 1/3 full, no outside trucks lining the street waiting to unload, and it was really hard to tell if even any of their trucks were out on the street, other the employee cars it looked like it was a Sunday afternoon, scary.

Our Sysco has laid off at least 60 people at least. There yard must have 300 trucks and trailers packed in there. My little yard where I work just furloughed a van driver today and I think more furloughs maybe coming...

 

[MikeJ]

Well how is everyone doing?
I'm here blew through most of my flex time days, taking days off on Monday, but I was working I've been doing some yard work for folks around my neighborhood and have a few bucks in the bank because of that and a couple cool machines in my garage so it's all right. I've been supplementing my income that way so it's all good. That's about that not much to say.

 

[kboomarang]

I drove by the local Sysco today and it looked like it was a busier place than it has been, some outside trucks in for unloading and somewhere between a 1/3 and half of their own outfits were out, there is talk of of restaurants and bars gradually reopening but at the same time there is an ever growing list of ones giving up and going out of biz.

 

[MikeJ]

I drove by the local Sysco today and it looked like it was a busier place than it has been, some outside trucks in for unloading and somewhere between a 1/3 and half of their own outfits were out, there is talk of of restaurants and bars gradually reopening but at the same time there is an ever growing list of ones giving up and going out of biz.

Our volume is starting to increase a little as well, because places are coming back, but there not coming back at 100% and were like the air lines we parked a lot of trucks and trailers and none of those parked, trucks, trailers or drivers for that matter have been called back yet, because we still have plenty of room to go, because some of the orders are small there only in the $500-$600 dollar range when they should be in the $1,500-$2,000 dollar range.

So what's happening is were having days like my Tuesday this past week where I was out for over 12 hours and had 20 stops to do lol.

 

[MikeJ]

Well hows everyone doing? I've been on truck load on and off the past couple of weeks. Which is fine, the hours kind of stink, but whatever anymore it all pays the same. Right now I kind of don't hate our being closed on Wednesday it gives me a chance to do other things like I have a little landscaping business, that I do and that's been throwing off a little bit of money, basically keeps me where I am at money at works been lousy, kind of left of center wondering if it's going to be time to hang it up and move on.