Why taking the freeze is probably for the best

Hawks9718

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March 15, 2010 10:48 AM - The world's five biggest AAA-rated states are all at risk of soaring debt costs and will have to implement austerity plans that threaten "social cohnesion", according to a report on sovereign debt by Moody's.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/...-as-AAA-states-implement-austerity-plans.html

French bank Société Générale has advised clients to be ready for a possible "global economic collapse" over the next two years...
{cont}Even without fresh spending, public debt would explode within two years to 105pc of GDP in the UK, 125pc in the US and the eurozone,
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/...ients-how-to-prepare-for-global-collapse.html

Wall Street's toxic pseudo-capitalism is imploding. Be prepared for a massive meltdown. Yes, already the third major bubble-bust of the 21st century, triggered once again by Wall Street's out-of-control Fat Cat Bankers. And it's dead ahead.
http://www.marketwatch.com/story/how-to-invest-for-the-debt-bomb-explosion-2010-02-09

....we would need about 15 million new jobs over the next five years just to get back to where we were when the recession started.

That works out to a need for about 125,000 new jobs each month to handle new workers coming into the market (which comes to a total of 7.5 million over five years), plus the 8 million and rising jobs we've lost. That is a daunting number. It amounts to 250,000 new jobs a month every month for five years. And we are still losing more than that number a month, let alone adding the needed 250,000.

Only once, in 1999, did we actually add over 250,000 jobs a month for a whole year. And that was during the internet boom.

Sadly, the private sector has shed over 300,000 jobs since 1999. Think about that. We have had a decade where there have been no new jobs added by the private sector. Real incomes are roughly where they were, and the stock market is down. Talk about a lost decade.
http://www.marketoracle.co.uk/Article15054.html

So. To sum it up, if you didnt already know, this "economic recovery" is bullsh*t. To add to the ongoing joy is a looming collapse of highly leveraged private debt, sovereign debt, commercial real estate and maybe even a currency crisis. Cool!

The fact that this company is pinning its hopes to a recovering retail sector is scary, based on the fact that sales tax reciepts are declining and continue to do so. U6 (real) unemployment figures are near 20%. Who do they think is going to be spending? Maybe if they can get Dollar General to ship with us, since thats all people are gonna be able to afford soon.. Note to NEMF white collars, snuggle up to Dollar General and manufacturers of guns, ammo, dehydrated food, tear gas, pitchforks..

Anyway.. The point is, despite all the bit*hing and moaning we do, we're all lucky to still have an income. Use the opportunity of that income stream to sock away cash, buy gold etc. and prepare for the day when 50% of Americans *dont* have jobs.

If you dont want a freeze and are pissed off, fine, vote FOR it and then happily start filling out applications elsewhere. There are still some of us who want to keep our jobs for as long as possible.

Just my .02
 
1) It isn't just a wage freeze, the head of our local reopened the contract for negotiation, WE ARE VOTING FOR A NEW CONTRACT WE HAVEN'T EVEN READ. I see a lot of posts how people need this job to pays mortgage, bills, etc. Would you sign or refinance a mortgage without reading the terms? They told us about less pay for new hires, anything else, wouldn't you like to know before voting.

2) I've read before that NEMF reads this board, things like the thread starter make me wonder of they post here too. Also most of the quoted articles are about England's economy, (UK.url).
 
[quote author=mtkayak link=topic=79008.msg819926#msg819926 date=1270634227]
Would you sign or refinance a mortgage without reading the terms? They told us about less pay for new hires, anything else, wouldn't you like to know before voting.[/quote]

I'm not in your local, so I know what im voting for. A freeze.

2) I've read before that NEMF reads this board, things like the thread starter make me wonder of they post here too. Also most of the quoted articles are about England's economy, (UK.url).

They may be quotes from a UK newspaper, but maybe you missed the part where it said a debt to GDP ratio of 125% in the US. Or when Societe Generale mentioned a possible "global economic collapse", that doesn't include the US?

Or maybe being that you're brilliant like I, you already know we have over a trillion dollar budget deficit, $14 trillion in national debt and over $60 trillion in unfunded liabilities as a nation. Errr, the United States.. Incase you think im talking about merry old England. I have to be sure and speak slowly for you.

No system can survive on foreign credit supply, when the USDollar is so undermined and debauched. No system can survive when it depends on asset price inflation as a source deemed as legitimate wealth even by its high priest. That is heresy, as we painfully witnessed. Evidence of the failure of the third myth is the massive flow of jobs in Asian outsourcing during a Chinese industrial expansion, the Fannie Mae mortgage finance faulty foundation and implosion (nationalization ultimately), dependence upon the housing bubble to continue consumer spending (painful reversal underway), growing trade gaps (reversed only by a borderline economic depression), and growing federal deficits (reaching Weimar levels in the trillion$). The continued evidence is the wreckage of the US banking system itself, a fact that few wish to state clearly and honestly. It cannot be revived

"Lost Control and Economic Mythology", Dr. Jim Willie

Is he talking about the UK? Oh wait.. US Dollar, Fannie mae.. Oh, ok.

New data released today seems to support this view, with consumer spending up 0.5% in January.

However, missing from their analysis is any plausible explanation as to why consumers will be able to sustain such spending given the plunge in income and credit, and the lack of available savings. In fact, the same January spending report showed that personal income increased by only 0.1%, while the savings rate slowed to the smallest since 2008.

I would challenge those who fantasize about a consumer-led recovery to describe where the spending money will come from. Most consumers are tapped out, millions are unemployed, and home equity has been wiped out. The only reasonable thing for them to do is to pay down debt and sock away as much money as possible to rebuild their savings.
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That, in a nutshell, is our government’s plan for economic recovery. Print a bunch of money and give it to consumers to spend. This is not a plan for recovery but a recipe for disaster. Those betting that this program can succeed in putting together a healthy and sustainable economy simply do not understand the nature of their wager. The smart money is going the other way.

"Dont Bet On A Recovery", Peter Schiff, President & Chief Global Strategist, Euro Pacific Capital.

“And yet, despite the immutable facts of a reduction in the standard of living for so many, we keep hearing talk of recovery -- which is, by definition, absurd, since a recovery assumes the reclamation of a prior state. The only prior state that has been recovered is the one that Wall Street was operating in before the financial world, as we knew it, ended in a thunderous calamity. In fact, even that picture isn’t entirely accurate since Wall Street has now, de facto, if not de jure, captured at least two, if not all three, branches comprising the Federal Government.

"Illusion of Prosperity Entering Its Twilight", Rick Ackermann, Partner, Blu Fin Financial.

What will it be, foreign governments dumping US Treasuries and other sovereign debt or a massive oversupply of such debt? Probably a combination of both. It is hard to declare a recovery when 92% of small businessmen say they as yet see no recovery and 60% say if it comes, it’s 14 to 18 months away. These kinds of poll results mean less not more spending and the selling of shares and bonds.

In addition we believe mortgage debt, both commercial and residential, will be sucked into the vortex adding to the woes. This is a replay of what occurred in the 1930s in the debt markets.
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As you can see the problems are not going away and they won’t disappear until the system is purged. More than $3 trillion has been poured into GM, AIG, Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac and Wall Street banks and brokerage houses by American taxpayers via the Fed and the Treasury. As a result the biggest violators have become even bigger, which was the intention from the beginning......Not only will seven million more people lose their homes this year creating a 3-year home inventory for sale, but also lenders will get hit with commercial real estate they cannot possibly finance. We see another minimum of four more years of defaults both in the US and Europe. Taxpayers cannot save the system indefinitely, especially when the players that caused all this are back leveraging and speculating again.

Robert Chapman, The International Forecaster, April #1

Enough yet? Maybe this will help;

http://www.rollingstone.com/politics/story/32255149/wall_streets_bailout_hustle/print

Here is a nice set of stats;

The consequences of excessive debt are already painful at the household level. The civilian employment to population ratio, a highly important barometer of the average household's standard of living, fell to 58.2% in December, the lowest reading in 26 years and down from a peak of 64.7% in April of 2000 (Chart 5). Thus, the standard of living has worsened as the debt to GDP ratio has marched steadily higher. With debt to GDP still rising, a further deterioration of the standard of living is inescapable.

"Thoughts on the Endgame"' John Mauldin, Financial Advisor

Oh yea, and in doing further research, I see that the % of US Debt to GDP is 367%, not 125% as reported in those smarmy UK links.

I'm sure you're also aware that this summer brings the highest level of Adjustable Rate Mortgage resets since the loans were first written during the bubble.. Which means more defaults, more forclosures = less consumer spending = less freight.

But go on believing the economy is lollipops like Bernanke and CNBC tell you it is. Keep pumping in 15% to your 401k.. Lots of executives need you to buy stocks, while they're busy selling, quietly.

The economy is not recovering. Before we're all out of jobs when the next economic shoe drops, lets keep the doors open and keep our paychecks.

PS, if you check old posts/threads started by me, you'll see im a driver.. Maybe you can even figure out what terminal im from.

PPS, I'm talking about the.. Uh.. US economy.
 
Okay your are right those where some cheap shots and you voting for a pay freeze, the question is , what else.

Tom Connery told us a no vote would require a strike. The question to our steward; we have a contract now, we are being asked to change that contract, is we say no, that contract remains in force, why would we have to strike. He asked our business agent and received the answer about the contract being reopened.

So we are being told about wage freeze and less pay/benefits for new hires, anything else, the one way to know is to read the contract before voting.

I'm sure you can ask your steward the same question, whichever terminal your from.
 
Hey.................. HELLO.... NEMF has nothing to do with the global economy....and i do understand they are responding to what is happening.

NEMF put themselves in this mess..and the only way to get out is a wage freeze? REALLY????....FACT IS NEMF IS ONE OF THE LOWEST PAID CARRIERS ALREADY AND IF YOU LOOK AROUND THE CARRIERS WHO ADJUSTED LAST YEAR ARE SEEING RESULTS.

SO I ASK WHY NOW, WHAT HAPPENED TO THE 30 MIL STOWED AWAY FOR EMERGENCY?

DONT PEE ON MY LEG AND SAY ITS RAINING..

FROM WHAT I'M HEARING ALOT OF NO VOTES......GOOD LUCK :popcorn:
 
[quote author=mtkayak link=topic=79008.msg820165#msg820165 date=1270721443]
Tom Connery told us a no vote would require a strike. [/quote]

It would require a strike vote (I still dont understand why). So, vote no.

The question to our steward; we have a contract now, we are being asked to change that contract, is we say no, that contract remains in force, why would we have to strike. He asked our business agent and received the answer about the contract being reopened.

I have no idea what you mean.. As far as I know, its a wage freeze with a possibility of the contract being re-opened a year from now.

[quote author=imovaherenow link=topic=79008.msg820173#msg820173 date=1270728090]
Hey.................. HELLO.... NEMF has nothing to do with the global economy.... [/quote]

A hypothetical... Greece is close to defaulting on its debt. If it does it will send shockwaves through the market and call into question the Wests sovereign debt and curriencies. So, interest will rise, completely collapsing the housing market again.. People will ditch dollars and euros and buy commodities, driving up the price of oil, which raises fuel costs.. Which NEMF is now unable to raise fuel surcharges b/c of demanded caps of those charges by customers after the last oil spike.

You were saying..?

Im sure the millions on unemployment thought mortgage backed securities, Bear Sterns and credit default swaps had nothing to do with them either. Just like years ago, people thought NAFTA (you know, that global economy thing) was a good idea.. Till millions of our jobs were shipped to Mexico.

NEMF put themselves in this mess..and the only way to get out is a wage freeze?

I dont know, ask the wonderful union.. They "looked" at the books.

FACT IS NEMF IS ONE OF THE LOWEST PAID CARRIERS ALREADY

I hear unemployed people are really underpaid too.

AND IF YOU LOOK AROUND THE CARRIERS WHO ADJUSTED LAST YEAR ARE SEEING RESULTS

True, but we're not FedEx or Conway. We dont have other business ventures to offset pure LTL losses.

FROM WHAT I'M HEARING ALOT OF NO VOTES......GOOD LUCK :popcorn:

I dont really care how it goes, I dont have to pay your bills. All im saying is keep your paychecks flowing to prepare for whats coming. If you wanna play economic chicken in this enviroment, with whats coming, thats on you. We all cut our own deal in life.

After YRC folds (not if, but when), we go back to the table and shove it up their a*s.. And while your at it, at the conclusion of your contracts, vote out the IAM and get a real union in here. Not a company "bought and paid for" union.
 
HAWKS9718....your posts are good and accurate...my dealings with this union is that its a joke..the BA'S are jokes and the stewards are a bunch of guys looking to fullfill things lacking in their life. their biased and for the most part totally ignore dockman.

THIS "union" or lack there of.. is a companies dream..to sell where unionized and then run each terminal seperately is moronic....look at the terminals that closed last year and the closures of canada..cmon has anyone seen an uptick in business from canada.....duhhhh..its becasue there importers not exporters.

and for the union to say "we looked at their books"...well THE MEASTERS...said the same thing..and they took 15% and the pension....


fyi....YRC goes out.....dont expect to get ur money back....
 
Hey Hawks9718 :chairshot: You have some info on this""After YRC folds (not if, but when), we go back to the table and shove it up their a*s..

:poke: Hope your not going around still telling customers that YRC is going to shut down..Hope your not disappointed when they return to making a profit later this year. The only way any of these LTL companies are going to make money is to stop with the big discounts just to gain "market share " or put freight on empty trailers..The "customers" have gotten use to the big discounts and like a drug habit it will take a long time to break them as they will go to every carrier one after another..Give YRC credit as they weed through their accounts.If it cant make money then do not put it on the truck..I work for a YRC company and I see what is going on and they will make it...Might want to buy some YRC stock while it is still cheap...
 
[quote author=crazy link=topic=79008.msg820694#msg820694 date=1270908775]
Hope your not going around still telling customers that YRC is going to shut down..Hope your not disappointed when they return to making a profit later this year.
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Might want to buy some YRC stock while it is still cheap...
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Hmmmm..

CHICAGO, March 16 (Reuters) - YRC Worldwide (YRCW) said on Tuesday that its auditor raised substantial doubts about its ability to operate as a "going concern," throwing fresh uncertainty over its ongoing effort to restructure itself outside of bankruptcy.

In a filing with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission, the Overland Park, Kan.-based company said its independent registered public accounting firm had said YRC's "significant declines in operations, cash flows and liquidity raise substantial doubt about our ability to continue as a going concern. "
http://eresearch.fidelity.com/erese...ovider=RTRSNEWS&product=COMBINED&sb=1

YRC will issue four-year unsecured convertible notes in the amount of $70 million paying 6% interest. The debt, to be issued in two tranches, is to be used to buy out a group of recalcitrant bond holders who refused to go for the debt-for-equity swap.

So the company that is hundreds of millions of dollars in debt is taking on more debt, while using every accounting gimmick in the FSAB handbook is going to survive huh?

With all the economic disasters looming, many of which I listed above, I beg to differ... I'd rather buy stock in an Algerian manure company.
 
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