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my own news article (if you will)

We (YRCW) got ourselves spread to all the world markets and found that all the world markets suck when we (the US) is sucking...
 
Analyst report

Update and Critical Events Assessment Report YRC Worldwide (YRCW)



Event: Company Update

Current Price: $6.32

Stock Rating: SELL

Change in Stock Rating: Reiteration

Price Target: $4.00 (lowered from previously achieved target of $12.00)

Date of Report: October 8, 2008

Industry: Truckers


Brief Description
The Company is a holding company that, through its wholly owned operating subsidiaries, offers its customers a range of asset and non-asset-based transportation services. The Yellow Roadway portfolio of brands provides a range of services for the movement of industrial, commercial, and retail goods.
Year Ends

December 31, 2008






After the closing bell on October 7, YRCW CEO Bill Zollars indicated that the Company was well financed and that it expects to be in compliance with the terms of its lending agreements. That is good news for the Company, but we still question how much revenue will improve during the quarter. In previous reports, we opined that the Company was seeing deteriorating revenue trends, and that was before the dramatic volatility and fear that has gripped most of the market lately.



Mr. Zollars went on to say, “Despite the continuing unrest in the broad financial markets, our current financial position is solid and we remain well positioned to weather this economic environment.” We did not think the Company was in danger of becoming insolvent, but we do foresee an operating loss for the year. Management also indicated that it would have positive cash flow for the third and fourth quarters and that it was going to use that cash flow to pay off “significant” debt this year.



WSS Opinion and Conclusion

Earlier this quarter, the Company issued an earnings warning and lowered its earnings per share expectations to a small loss, which includes approximately $0.06 to $0.08 worth of restructuring costs. We have adjusted our earnings and revenue expectations for the third and fourth quarters, as well as our full year estimates. We are modeling for a small loss excluding restructuring charges.



WSS Previous Estimates



Ø 3Q08: Revenue: $2.33 billion EPS: $0.20

Ø 4Q08: Revenue: $2.22 billion EPS: $0.34

Ø FY08: Revenue: $9.18 billion EPS: $0.37



We are reiterating our SELL recommendation and lowering our share price target to $4.00. We are close to upgrading our recommendation because we do not think the Company will go out of business and that Mr. Zollars will eventually turn YRC Worldwide around, however, the current macro environment (despite lower fuel prices) is precluding us from taking that action at this point. The stock will continue to be under pressure as tonnage trends and pricing remain soft. Note: Our favorite in the industry is J.B Hunt Transportation (JBHT). YRC Worldwide is scheduled to release third quarter earnings on October 23, 2008.


Wall Street Strategies Financial Estimates

Line Item
3Q08 Projection
3Q07 Actual

Revenue
2,272.6
2,457.7

Operating Income
43.3
87.7

Net Income
-2.7
40.8

Earnings per Share
-0.05
0.70



Wall Street Strategies Financial Estimates

Line Item
4Q08 Projection
4Q07 Actual

Revenue
2,171.5
2,348.7

Operating Income
33.1
1.6

Net Income
2.1
0.8

Earnings per Share
0.04
0.01



Wall Street Strategies Financial Estimates

Line Item
FY08 Projection
FY07 Actual

Revenue
9,075.4
9,621.2

Operating Income
110.6
232.2

Net Income
-10.0
101.8

Earnings per Share
-0.17
1.74


All figures are in millions of U.S. dollars (except EPS)





Methodology and Current Sentiment

Our research takes macro economic factors into account, as well as broad industry-specific trends and developments. We combine these to assess the current and future backdrop for the industry and each company we follow in that particular sector. The other component of our decision making process involves absolute analysis, measuring companies against their own historic performance. The final stage of our research is measuring the value of a company on a relative and absolute basis and within the parameters of historic valuation metrics afforded to the company and the industry.
 
Oil

Oil Closes Below $80 for Week

Oil closed below $80 for the first time in more a year Friday, amid commodity price declines and worldwide economic uncertainty, Bloomberg reported.

Crude futures plunged $8.83, or about 10%, to close at $77.76 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange, Bloomberg said.

Oil has fallen about 45% since setting a record closing price of $145.18 in mid-July.

The Energy Department comes out with its weekly survey of diesel and gasoline prices on Monday.

By Transport Topics
 
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