Simply Implausible Jobs Report: BLS Cooked The Books – Here is What You Need To Know

Toby

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Simply Implausible Jobs Report: BLS Cooked The Books – Here is What You Need To Know

The American citizens are suffering at the pump, in the Supermarket check-out line, and across all economic spheres. 4 million working-age Americans are choosing to stay out of the workforce, and more jobs are available than applicants. The Supply Chain remains strained. Main Street does not reflect what the BLS ( Bureau of Labor and Statistics) is trying to sell.

But we have been here before in the Obama years- Obama 2.0?

“We saw a similar approach taken by the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) to the GDP in 2018. President Trump’s numbers were too good, so the BEA reduced Trump’s numbers in 2017 and redistributed the increase in GDP to the Obama years.”

This manipulation of economic numbers is so brazen this time that it defies any scope of reality. The measures used to derive this illusion involve major revisions of previous months’ data and skew of what it is measured against to achieve a specific outcome. Yes, very complicated stuff!

So for our readers, we have gathered three articles that dive into the minutia and reveal how the Biden administration’s con worked. Please take the time to read through them so you understand that YOU are getting played.

The President, his administrative agencies, his Party, and his media – are boldface lying to all Americans when they claim the economy and jobs are reflected accurately in this official government reporting.

 

1984Sideways

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I simply discredited the report when it came out on the spot.

Tossed the whole thing as not fitting my lying eyes and ears around this area I live in. People here are in combat economically and they are making do. Sometimes making do without.

Feels like the bad old days of 1980's all over again. Except the difference is the Fed refuses to take overnight rate to 20% flat. That will end inflation in a week. But probably will do a great deal of damage to a very top percentage of society who is raking in mountains of money.

Lets not even look at the interest Uncle Sam is paying on that National Debt. Its almost damn near equal to what we spend on Defense every year now. And gaining awful fast on the rest of the budget for the entire damn country.

Thats like in simple terms having a annual income of 4.00, interest on debt is about .70, Defense is around 1.00 Medical and SSA, VA etc probably comes to 2 dollars. The rest funds everything else on top of a never ending credit card.

I think they are on path to add to that debt a amount of money two times or even three times annual US Budget this year. Its really breath taking.
 

Toby

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More on Today’s Bogus Job Numbers from the BLS – “There’s Never Been a January Seasonal Adjustment of This Magnitude


Today’s job numbers are as shocking as Joe Biden’s win in the 2020 Election – meaning they’re garbage. Here’s more on the unrealistic and dishonest reporting coming from the BLS.
We reported earlier on how today’s job numbers coming out of the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) made no sense:


For those who only look at headlines, today’s payrolls report was a veritable shock: coming in at 467K, it was almost 4x the consensus median expectation of 125K, and was orders of magnitude above Goldman’s forecast of -250K. Putting the stunning, 3-sigma beat in context, it came above all 78 estimates, and was more than double the highest forecast of 225K from HSBC. Even more ludicrous were historical adjustments which saw December increased from 199K to 510K, November from 249K to 647K and so on.
The plot thickens:

 

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Here Is What's Behind Today's Stunning Payrolls Beat

After all even CNBC - while interviewing labor secretary Marty Walsh - couldn't believe the BLS data, prompting the secretary to repeat on many occasions that the numbers are "credible" and he "stands behind them" and of course he will: after all, taken at face value the numbers signal a resilient labor market and demand for workers despite omicron’s hit. The gains were broad-based, spanning retail, hospitality, transportation and warehousing, business services and others. In short, contrary to data from even the Atlanta Fed whose GDPNow shows Q1 GDP rising just 0.1%, the labor data indicates an economy firing on all cylinders and growing strong.

But is that true?

Well, here's what happened. First, looking at just the December to January change we find that while the seasonally adjusted number rose by an impressive 467K, the unadjusted number collapsed, tumbling from 150.349 million to 147.525 million, a 2.8 million drop (as it tends to do every time the year shifts from December to January) meaning that the entire delta in the January number - somewhere in the 3+ million range - is due to arbitrary adjustments overlaid on top of the data.


The plot thickens, and indeed one thing that analysts apparently forgot when they were submitting their forecasts for January's payrolls is that this is the month when the BLS adjusts data for the past 10 years as part of its population estimates revisions, which impact both the Household and more important, Establishment, surveys.

In summary, what these revisions did was to revise 2017 job growth lower by by -61,000, 2018 lower by -26,000, 2019 revised lower by -43,000, while 2020 was revised higher by 124,000, and 2021 was also revised up 217,000, or in total a 211,000 upward revision over 5 years or 3,500 jobs per month.

Focusing on just 2021, we find something curious: the stunning print from the summer which saw June and July print at or over 1 million, have been slashed by almost 50%, at the expense of most recent months such that October added 29K, November added 398K and December added 311K jobs to what was the original print only as a result of seasonal adjustments. Said otherwise, March-July was revised lower by -1,061,000 while Aug-Dec was revised up by +817,000.
 

Toby

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SHADES OF OBAMA – January Job Numbers Doubled the Highest Estimate of 78 Experts – And You’re Supposed to Believe This is Real

 

Northern Flash

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SHADES OF OBAMA – January Job Numbers Doubled the Highest Estimate of 78 Experts – And You’re Supposed to Believe This is Real

I trust nothing that comes out of this administration. They've ruined all of their credibility.
They'd be willing to report that Biden had 18 hole-in-ones also, just like Kim Jong Un did. The sad part is that the ignorant half of this country would believe it.

This is the most deceptive, fraudulent administration in history. But it makes since because his election was fraudulent too.
 

SuperCourse

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More Reaction… Bureau of Labor Statistics Literally Just Made Up January Jobs Report​


For the record, the only jobs report you can sort of trust is the ADP payrolls report.

Businesses’ payrolls fell by 301,000 last month in a broad-based decline, according to ADP Research Institute data released Wednesday. The median forecast in a Bloomberg survey of economists called for a 180,000 rise.

 

Toby

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More Reaction… Bureau of Labor Statistics Literally Just Made Up January Jobs Report​


For the record, the only jobs report you can sort of trust is the ADP payrolls report.



When it came out I think very few people fell for it
 

Toby

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More Reaction… Bureau of Labor Statistics Literally Just Made Up January Jobs Report

Here’s where the BLS comes out and tells us they simply made up numbers to arrive at the headline the White House communications staff wrote for them:

The adjustments increased the estimated size of the civilian noninstitutional population in December by 973,000, the civilian labor force by 1,530,000, employment by 1,471,000, and unemployment by 59,000. The number of persons not in the labor force decreased by 557,000.

 
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