i think it has to do with that yrc business coming down this friday, plus by the heights is booming and at my terminal were trainng dock guys to come drivers
The one 'wild card' in the whole YRC debt restructuring scenario is the price of diesel fuel.
Every company is adding fuel surcharges to their rates. It is a revenue generating technique that has kept some afloat.
That being said...there must be flexibilty in the program. Cash reserves are the key. As volatile as the LTL market is at present and taking into consideration the ever increasing rise in diesel prices...things may change.
YRC is in a very precarious siutation...as they have been for quite some time. However the price of fuel may be a key factor. It is not a constant. The debt restructuring for the most part is based on hard predictable numbers. Oil is a commodity market...subject to the whims of buyers and producers...and given the environment of some foreign producers and the greed of some oil companies...fuel prices could go anywhere.
Chase Morgan AFAIK holds the largest note against YRC and have been more than willing to negotiate revised terms month after month...and quarter after quarter ad nauseum. As long as the loan remains solvent on Chase's books they won't take a hit for the default.
If YRC files bankruptcy heads will roll at Chase...their stock will plummet and they will be at the mercy of a bankrupty court and its designated controller.
These possible scenarios are lender specific.
YRC doesn't have enough market share to make a difference if they belly up. The remaining carriers will absorb the volume with ease.
It is my belief that in the near future some major LTL carrier is going to go by the wayside.
As mentioned prior...cash reserves is the key.
FedEx and UPS will be OK. They have large spreadsheets and tons of cash reserves. However if your only source of revenue is the LTL market...there may be difficulties ahead.
And as with CF...it will be a phone call from nowhere....
Rat